After this week pre-elections predicting the return of left government, USDARS spiked to 61.99, resulting in high volatility and uncertainty. This situation is positive on a very short term for the exports, but negative on a medium term for future planting 2020.
CEC latest issued their 6th estimates on July 25, 2019 crop calling for a crop of 18.880 tons down 66.88 percent vs. last year. We believe that actual crop output could be as low as 15.000 metric tons. Things have not changes in South Africa. Buyers will need to import a lot of peanuts (at least 50.000 mt) from African countries and other main edible countries like Argentina or Brazil.
ARGENTINA: Positive news weather is settling down to allow proper harvesting, mixed/bullish ↔ ↑BREAKING NEWS
Positive news weather is settling down to allow proper harvesting. Negative point is that after the rainy period of at least 20 days on the dugged 70 per cent of the crop, farmers and shellers are realizing now the quality issues that might be adding to the already reduced tonnage outcome. Nevertheless situation isn’t clear at this moment in order to quantify available exportable edible surplus.
In contradiction with the latest official crop estimates of 88'000 metric tons production , local peanut experts foresee much less total output and talking about numbers below 60'000 metric tons... Yields on the dryland fields seem to be far below the expected 1'300 kg but more likely between 500 kg and 1'000 kg. Yields on irrigation are normal but not excessive... We would not be surprised to see total crop slightly above the 50'000 metric tons We do not expect the origin offering new crop until the month of June 2018... To be continued
Too much rain the last days over the peanut belt, harvesting process is halted in most areas for a few days… Our ideas are still unchanged with average of 2 metric tons in shell per Hectare; obviously we still have a long way to go and an adequate dry climate is needed for a good harvest.
Thanks to the latest rain relieves throughout the peanut belt, digging starts finally at full swing. Some good fields and bad ones, average expected is unchanged around 2 metric tons per hectare providing the harvesting isn’t an additional problem. To be continued...
Last weekend, finally the Cordoba peanut belt got some rains. Northern part only 5 to 8mm. The center part got the most from 25mm to 40mm. No rain in the South of the peanut belt. More rain forecasted for coming Friday to Sunday. There is no need to say that these late rain will only favor yields of the late planted areas, 10 to 15 per cent of the crop. Rains are positive for the digging, harvesting of some fields and might be negative for the fields already dug and for the fields that had heavy drought stress. At this moment we know very little of the average quality outcome, to be continued…