ARGENTINA: Some rain at last, mixed & bullish ↑BREAKING NEWS  

Last weekend, finally the Cordoba peanut belt got some rains. Northern part only 5 to 8mm. The center part got the most from 25mm to 40mm. No rain in the South of the peanut belt. More rain forecasted for coming Friday to Sunday. There is no need to say that these late rain will only favor yields of the late planted areas, 10 to 15 per cent of the crop. Rains are positive for the digging, harvesting of some fields and might be negative for the fields already dug and for the fields that had heavy drought stress. At this moment we know very little of the average quality outcome, to be continued…
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ARGENTINA: The drought continues, bullish!BREAKING NEWS ↑  

Yesterday’s rain did not bring the expected relief; but only scattered showers in Mackena and surroundings, these rains of 10 to 20 mm in this specific area will only allow digging from these fields. There is a growing concern in all other affected areas by consistent drought due to lack of suitable digging conditions. Not only soil needs to be loosen up, but also peanut plants need to be rehydrated. We hope that the next forecasted storms coming weekend will help ultimately… to be continued…
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SOUTH AFRICA: latest crop estimates jumped more than 20 per cent: mixedBREAKING NEWS ↔ 

Coming back on our previous crop estimates, it seems that the plenty of rainfall during the last 60 days has favored yields and hectares plantations (to be verified). This week the National Crop Estimate committee announced a total peanut crop of 89,000 MT, witch a too optimistic figure that indicates an average yield of 1.58 MT/HA. Local expert opinion is more that the average yield will be between 1.1 – 1.3 MT/Ha, which will bring the South African Spanish crop to a total production of 61,000 – 73,000 metric tons of farmer stock kernel basis. We advise to be cautious as a substantial part of the crop has been planted very late and thus exposed to potential issues during a late harvest, to be continued…
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ARGENTINA: Last week end scattered showersBREAKING NEWS ↑  

After the few showers that happened last week end; 10mm in the north and 15-20mm around Rio Cuarto. Latest rain covered only 30% of the peanut fields. Bulk of the crop is still under light stress. Below report from our local experts: Several weeks have been passed without a decent rain in the peanut area.  All rain activities so far have been scattered showers, except for few exceptions, that provided limited or no rainfall. Weather forecast expect same pattern for another week , scattered showers with limited rainfall. By the 6/7th of March there is a possibility of decent rains but again not covering all areas. The crop in the Centre to South Peanut Belt has deteriorated. Peanuts that have been planted in October have no time now to get a decent recovery. Potential Yields At this stage is fair to expect that 2018 crop yields (average)will not be much above 2600 kgs. If we compare it with 3600 kgs of harvested area last year, you can see that production will fall, despite the planting increase of 5%. Production estimation at this stage: 2018 crop tonnage will be around 1.0 M(in shell basis) providing normal weather happens from early March till harvesting is completed. The next 2 weeks weather pattern will be crucial for the crop…
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ARGENTINA: Curent crop quality doubtful, new crop’s fear of La Nina; bullishBREAKING NEWS ↑  

Current crop 2017 market, reached bottom we believe, pricing depending on the quality level; substantial differential between grade A and grade B, fear of mold, AFLA and high FFA. New crop 2018 is looking good until now, market fears effects of drought from La NIna climatic influence. To follow carefully; in our view market has reach bottom : USD 1'400 for blanched 40/50 2018 crop
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EUROPEAN MARKET: very quiet, mixedBREAKING NEWS ↔ 

European market: very quiet January and February 2018 , warehouses seem quite full for the time of the year, a very cold February month could trigger some activity, starting with very active birdfood market pushing spot prices slightly upwards; we expect much more activity on the physical market as from March/April 2018 : mixed
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